The FAO attributes the increase to disruptions to logistics and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, combined with climate shocks. Maximo Torero, the FAO's chief economist, described a "persistent and increasingly broad based build up in global commodity prices." According to the Epoch Times, the strait normally carries roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade and 35% of seaborne crude oil shipments, and Russia and Ukraine have intensified attacks on infrastructure in the Black Sea area, causing transport disruptions. The same outlet puts the index 5.8% above its level a year earlier.

Cereals led the grain-side increase, with the FAO's cereal price index up 5.1% on the month. Sources differ on why. Forbes cites Black Sea logistical constraints and dry weather in North America. Business Times points to a war-related collapse in Black Sea trade and says wheat futures hit a three-year peak early in the month. Epoch Times reports international wheat prices up 6.3% on Black Sea constraints and North American dryness, and maize up 5.6% on concerns over US production and lower exports from Brazil.

Sugar posted the largest monthly gain among the categories reported, with the FAO's sugar index up 6.1% to an 18-month high. The explanations vary by source. Business Times attributes the rise to fears of a severe El Niño weather pattern. Epoch Times names lower production forecasts in Thailand and India and excessive rainfall in Brazil. Forbes lists production problems in Thailand, Brazil and India. Tighter global supplies are expected in the 2026-27 season. Vegetable oil prices rose 0.9%, which Business Times links to palm oil concerns in South-east Asia.

Two categories fell. Meat prices dropped 1.1%, and dairy slipped 0.1%. Forbes attributes both declines to abundant supplies, while Business Times ties the meat decline to lower poultry prices linked to reduced EU demand.

A strengthening El Niño is adding uncertainty for crop production. Epoch Times, citing the FAO, says rice yields in South and Southeast Asia typically run 1 to 1.5% below trend during such events. Forbes reports that the FAO's report warned that if the pressures persist, they will pass through to consumer prices in import-dependent countries.

In a separate report, the FAO left its 2026 global cereal production forecast almost unchanged at 2.979 billion tonnes. That is 2.1% below the previous year's peak but would still be the second-largest harvest on record. The agency cut its forecast for world cereal trade by 0.7% from a month earlier, citing lower wheat and maize export expectations amid constrained Black Sea shipping. The World Bank said in its September 28 Food Security Update that global food markets remain broadly stable, according to Epoch Times.