Much of that speculation centers on whether US President Donald Trump will win. Trump has said he ended eight wars and argued he deserves the prize for it; on October 7 he again claimed credit for having "ended 8 wars," according to VnExpress VT. Nobel-watchers dispute the premise, pointing to his administration's military campaign against Iran, territorial ambitions involving Greenland, a confrontational posture toward multilateral institutions, and the unmet promise to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Norwegian Nobel Committee, led by secretary Kristian Berg Harpviken, says its decisions are made independently of political pressure. What Washington's reaction would be if Trump is passed over remains an open question.

The 2025 prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who dedicated her medal to Trump after what VnExpress VT described as his "raid" to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Trump never gave Machado the political backing she had expected, VnExpress VT reported, and under Nobel rules the prize itself cannot be transferred regardless. Experts cited by DPA International and VnExpress VT say that episode may push the committee toward a less controversial choice this year.

Names mentioned as consensus candidates include the humanitarian group Save the Children, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms — a grassroots network that DPA International says has supplied food, medical care and shelter since Sudan's civil war began — and Ukrainian child rights advocate Mykola Kuleba. Kuleba, a former Ukrainian presidential commissioner for children's rights, has campaigned for the return of Ukrainian children he says were unlawfully deported to Russia since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022. The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants in March 2023 for Russian President Vladimir Putin and official Maria Lvova-Belova over the alleged unlawful deportation of those children. Russia denies wrongdoing, calling the transfers evacuations or humanitarian measures; Ukraine says the children were taken without proper consent. US First Lady Melania Trump has separately advocated for reuniting children separated from their families by war.

VnExpress VT lists other possible contenders seen as critical of Trump, among them UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese, Pope Leo XIV, the Committee to Protect Journalists, the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice.

The backdrop to this year's choice is grim by the Peace Research Institute Oslo's count: 65 state-involved armed conflicts in 2025, the most since 1946. "Overall, it is clear that the world is developing in a negative direction," PRIO leader Haakon Gjerlow said.

The prize traces to Alfred Nobel, who lived from 1833 to 1896 and designated the Norwegian Nobel Committee to award it in his will, calling for recognition of work toward "fraternity between nations," arms-race reduction and the organizing of peace congresses. It is the fifth category Nobel established; Swedish committees handle the other four. A five-member committee appointed by the Norwegian Parliament selects the winner. The 2026 prize is worth 12 million Swedish kronor, about $1.2 million, and will be presented with a medal and diploma at a ceremony in Oslo on December 10, the anniversary of Nobel's death.