Nigerian Firms Face Strategic Vulnerability in Polycrisis Era Despite Economic Optimism
Researchers from Lagos Business School identify a 'polycrisis' of overlapping shocks facing Nigerian firms and propose a five-part test focusing on strategic soundness, technology, adaptability, talent, and ethics.
Newsnibs Staff
- 2026-10-12
- Updated 8:08 AM UTC
(Lagos, Nigeria)
A new study from two Lagos Business School researchers argues that Nigerian firms face a "polycrisis" of overlapping climate, geopolitical, macroeconomic and technological shocks, and offers a five-part test for which companies will survive it. The article, by Professor Franklin Nnaemeka Ngwu and Chinasa Onwe, was published in October 2026.
The authors propose judging firms on five measures: core strategic soundness, technology mastery, global adaptability, talent agility, and ethical impact. They conclude that navigating the current environment requires what they call "reflective leadership," a concept Harvard Business Impact has identified as essential for executives managing disruption.
On the macroeconomic front, the Nigeria Executive Outlook 2025, produced by Boston Consulting Group and Lagos Business School, found 45 per cent of Nigerian executives name foreign exchange and macroeconomic volatility as their top threat. Still, 74 per cent of executives surveyed view the business climate as positive, and Nigeria's GDP is forecast to grow by more than 4.4 per cent. Despite that outlook, only 26 per cent of executives engage in scenario planning.
On technology, 83 per cent of Nigerian firms expect to integrate generative AI within two years, but 63 per cent remain stuck in early pilot stages, with leadership capability and talent shortages cited as the main constraints. That gap mirrors a global pattern: McKinsey & Company's The State of Organisations 2026 found 88 per cent of organizations have embraced AI, yet 81 per cent report no bottom-line benefit from it, a failure the report attributes to companies not transforming their underlying processes.
Leadership confidence has not kept pace with the technology. Harvard Business Impact's 2026 Global Leadership Study found only 44 per cent of leaders feel confident leading technological transformation, down from 64 per cent four years earlier.
On governance, the authors note Nigerian corporate governance has improved in awareness but not in practice, with governance practice at 30 per cent against 50 per cent awareness. They link this to a wider trust problem: the 2025 Edelman Trust Barometer found 68 per cent of people believe business leaders deceive the public.
Ngwu and Onwe tie the ethical-impact and talent-agility lenses to Harvard Business Impact's framework for reflective leadership, which highlights emotional intelligence (45 per cent) and resilience (43 per cent) as the key skills involved. Leaders who score as reflective are more than twice as likely as others, 30 per cent versus 17 per cent, to believe their organizations can adapt rapidly to change.
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