The seat is open because Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring when his term ends in January. He announced his departure after opposing President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill over its Medicaid cuts.

Cooper, 69, is a former two-term governor and former state attorney general who says he has never lost an election. He won statewide in 2016 and 2020, years when North Carolina voted for Trump. His campaign has been moderate in tone and centered on the economy and the cost of living, with a pledge to "work with anyone" to "make stuff cost less." He has criticized Trump's tariffs and the war with Iran.

Whatley, 58, is a former chair of the Republican National Committee and has never held elected office. Trump handpicked him, and he has tied himself closely to the president, hosting both Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the state and promoting the tax and spending bill. He has accused Cooper of being soft on crime, a charge Cooper rejects. Trump has gone after Cooper's record on crime and his handling of the response to Hurricane Helene. FBI figures put North Carolina's violent crime rate in the middle third of states.

Cooper led in pre-election polling, by about 11 points in one account, and outraised Whatley. A mid-October poll by WRAL and WSOC found 60% of likely voters disapproved of Trump's job performance. In October, national Republican groups pulled tens of millions of dollars out of the state, including the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC that said it was redirecting money to other races.

For Democrats the race is the clearest route to a Senate majority, which requires a net gain of four seats. Party strategists regard Cooper as their strongest recruit and best pickup opportunity anywhere. Even a win in North Carolina would leave them needing three of the six Republican-held battleground states, while also holding Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia. No Democrat has won a North Carolina Senate race since Kay Hagan in 2008.

A House seat is also in play. The Republican-held 11th District is rated likely to flip, with the incumbent leaving amid sexual harassment allegations and Democratic challenger Jamie Ager raising strong money. Across the state, independent voters now outnumber both registered Democrats and registered Republicans, which leaves the Senate outcome tied to Republican turnout and to who carries the independents.