Average prices are already running 20 to 30 percent higher than a year ago, according to Katy Nastro, an aviation correspondent at Flighty. Nastro said waiting for a "perfect" fare is a gamble that's unlikely to pay off this year.

Andrea Woroch, a consumer savings expert, told The Independent that airfare typically ticks up once October begins, which makes booking now important for locking in cheaper economy fares and better flight routes. Anton Radchenko, CEO of AirAdvisor, said the crunch comes down to volume: millions of travelers are competing for the same narrow band of dates around both holidays.

TSA screening data shows just how concentrated that travel is. The Sunday after Thanksgiving was the busiest travel day of 2025, with 3.13 million people passing through TSA checkpoints.

Experts are unanimous that Thanksgiving flights should be booked immediately, even for travelers who haven't settled their Christmas plans yet.